Unemployment rises to 5.1%

Labour Market Overview: February 2021 – ONS

The UK unemployment rate, in the three months to December 2020, was estimated at 5.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

The UK employment rate, in the three months to December 2020, was estimated at 75.0%, 1.5 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

In January 2021, 726,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment when compared with February 2020.

In January 2021, 83,000 more people were in payrolled employment when compared with December 2020; this is the second consecutive monthly increase.

BCC downgrades 2012 growth forecast

British Chambers of Commerce Q3 Economic Forecast

  • Downgrade of 2012 growth forecast from +0.1% to -0.4
  • Although UK quarterly growth will be positive in Q3 and Q4 of this year, GDP growth will be in negative territory for 2012 as a whole
  • Growth forecast for 2013 is revised down from 1.9% to 1.2%, followed by an improvement to 2.2% in 2014.
  • Household consumption will remain subdued; after falling 1.1% in 2011 and 0.2% in 2012, it will return to positive growth in 2013 and 2014.
  • We predict that total UK unemployment will increase from 2.564 million (8.0% of the workforce) in Q2 2012, to 2.750 million (8.5% of the workforce) in Q4 2013, a net increase of 186,000 in the jobless total.
  • Youth unemployment will total some 1.048 million in Q4 2013. Unemployment in the 16-17 age group is forecast to total around 218,000 (a jobless rate of 39%) in Q4 2013. Unemployment in the 18-24 age group is forecast to total around 830,000 (a jobless rate of 21%) in Q4 2013.
  • In average terms, we are now predicting annual CPI inflation at 2.7% in 2012, 2.1% in 2013, and 2.2% in 2014.
  • For RPI inflation we are now predicting 3.1% in 2012, 2.3% in 2013, and 2.5% in 2014.

 

British Chambers forecast minimal growth

BCC forecasts minimal growth

  • BCC lowers 2012 GDP growth forecast from 0.6% to 0.1%
  • 2013 growth forecast revised up, from 1.8% to 1.9%
  • Household consumption will see a modest improvement from -1.2% in 2011, to positive growth of 0.7% in 2012, 1.7% in 2013, and 2.1% in 2014.
  • Eexpect a strong recovery in business investment from 1.2% in 2011, to 4.3% in 2012, 7.3% in 2013, and 7.6% in 2014.
  • UK exports will grow more rapidly than imports in both 2013 and 2014.
  • UK unemployment will increase from 2.625 million (8.2% of the workforce) in Q1 2012, to 2.9 million (9% of the workforce) in Q3 2013, a net increase of 275,000 in the jobless total.
  • Youth unemployment will total 1.07m in Q3 2013. Unemployment in the 16-17 age group is forecast to total around 223,000 (a jobless rate of 41%) in Q3 2013. Unemployment in the 18-24 age group is forecast to total around 850,000 (a jobless rate of 23%) in Q3 2013