European retail analysis and forecast

European retail analysis and forecast: GfK

  • Disposable income of Europe’s households in 2011 has again climbed despite the current debt crisis and uncertainty
  • The greatest growth rates occurred in Russia, Norway, Great Britain, Scandinavia and the Baltic states.
  • Retailers in the 32 evaluated countries generated an approximate 2012 retail turnover of €3.09 trillion, an increase of approximately +3.7 percent over the 2011 value
  • GfK forecasts a nominal growth of approximately +1.9 percent in retail turnover in 2013



Wealth of the Average Household: Great Britain, 2008/10

Wealth of the Average Household: Great Britain, 2008/10: ONS

  • In 2008/10, middle wealth households had total wealth of between £158,000 and £317,000.
  • Almost nine in ten middle wealth households owned their main residence.
  • Over three in five middle wealth households were headed by an employed or self employed individual.

Minimum Income Standard

Minimum Income Standard for the UK

  • The Minimum Income Standard is the income that people need in order to reach a minimum socially acceptable standard of living in the United Kingdom today, based on what members of the public think. Requirements for each household type specify how much they need to spend and what they need to earn in order to reach this standard.
  • A minimum standard of living in Britain today includes, but is more than just, food, clothes and shelter. It is about having what you need in order to have the opportunities and choices necessary to participate in society.
  • A Minimum Income Standard in the United Kingdom is an ongoing programme of research to define what level of income is needed to allow a minimum acceptable standard of living in the UK today.

UK Expenditure Index

UK Expenditure Index, Dec 2012: Visa Europe

  • Marginal reduction in UK household spending indicated. Month-on-month fall of -0.9% recorded in December (November: 0.1%).
  • Year-on-year spending was -1.7% lower (November: -1.4%).
  • Underlying spending down following recent strong growth: December 3m/3m rate at -0.9% (November: 1.8%).
  • High street spending principal source of weakness in final month of 2012.

economic position of households

The economic position of households, Q3 2012: ONS

  • Real household actual income per head increased by £21 (0.5 per cent) in the third quarter of 2012, compared with the second quarter of 2012, to its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2010
  • Real household actual expenditure per head was virtually unchanged falling by £9 (0.2 per cent) in the third quarter of 2012, compared with the second quarter of 2012
  • The household saving ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. Gross household saving was £21.2 billion in the same quarter, up from £20.3 billion in the second quarter of 2012

Consumer Trends

Consumer Trends Q3 2012: ONS

  • In Q3 2012, household spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.4 per cent (£874 million), Olympic and Paralympic ticket sales and car purchases were the main contributions to growth.
  • In Q3 2012 the volume measure increased by 0.4 per cent, meaning it was 4.8 per cent below the peak of pre recession spending in Q4 2007
  • The current price value of household spending (inflation included) shows how much UK households spent. In Q3 2012 the current price value of household spending increased by 0.8 per cent on the quarter, meaning it was 10.5 per cent higher than Q4 2007
  • In Q3 2012, the value of UK household spending per head, in current price terms, was £3,840, an increase of 0.6 per cent on the quarter, £241 higher than in Q4 2007

UK Expenditure Index

UK Expenditure Index, Oct 2012: Visa

  • UK household spending falls following two consecutive months of growth. Monthly decline of -2.9% (September: +3.1%).
  • Annual fall in consumer spending recorded in October. Decline of -1.8% registered (September:+0.1%).
  • Underlying growth of spending maintained: October 3m/3m rate 2.3% (September: 1.8%).
  • Return to growth of internet spending, but high street shows fall compared to a year ago.