Upgraded growth forecast from BCC

Upgraded growth forecast from BCC

  • The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has upgraded its growth forecasts for the next two years – from 2.7% to 2.8% in 2014 and from 2.4% to 2.5% in 2015.
  • UK GDP expected to exceed  its pre-recession peak in Q2 2014 – one quarter earlier than forecast in December
  • UK GDP quarterly growth is forecast at 0.7% in Q1 2014, easing slightly to 0.6% in Q2 2014, before averaging 0.6% per quarter until the end of 2016.
  • The first increase in UK interest rates expected in Q3 2015 to 0.75%
  • Wage growth predicted to exceed inflation from mid-2014
  • The youth unemployment rate is expected to remain almost three times the national average over the forecast period (2014 – 2016)
  • Unemployment rate expected to fall from 7.2% in Q4 2013 to 6.0% in Q4 2016
  • Growth in 2016 expected to be 2.5%.
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Growth forecast reduced

Economic Forecast: BCC 

  • BCC downgrades its growth forecasts: from 1.0% to 0.6% in 2013, and from 1.8% to 1.7% in 2014
  • Prospects should improve in the medium term: in 2015, BCC forecasts growth of 2.2%
  • Unemployment forecast is 50,000 lower than in December
  • Public sector borrowing is forecast at £89.7bn in 2012/13, £9.2bn higher than the OBR predicted in December 2012