Signs of recovery?

Quarterly Economic Survey: BCC

  • Most key balances strengthened in Q2 2013 compared with previous quarter but most balances remain below their pre-recession levels in 2007
  • Service export deliveries balance rose to +36%,  the highest level since the survey began in 1989
  • Employment balances rose in Q2, following their Q1 decline.
  • Business confidence has again increased
  • Manufacturing confidence that turnover will improve rose seven points
  • Profitability confidence rose

Business confidence index

Business confidence index / trade confidence index: BCC

Exports rise 1.4% in Q4 2012 – up 5.2% on Q4 2011

  • Nearly half of exporters (45%) said their export sales increased, compared to 13% of respondents, who said that they decreased;
  • In the service sector, export sales increased for 46% of firms, up from 42% in Q3; in manufacturing, export sales increased for 45% of businesses, up from 34% in Q3;
  • 59% of exporters feel that their turnover will increase in 2013. 50% believe that their profitability will improve in 2013;
  • More than a quarter of firms (27%) said they expected to increase staff this year, down from 31% in Q3

CBI SME Trends Survey

CBI’s latest quarterly SME Trends Survey

  • Both domestic and export orders among the UK’s small and medium-sized manufacturers fell in the three months to October.
  • Production levels continued to contract modestly, while business sentiment deteriorated for the second consecutive quarter.
  • Prospects for the coming quarter are somewhat better, with output expected to increase slightly and new orders expected to level off.

Economy remains stagnant

Economy remains stagnant: BCC Quarterly Economic Survey

  • Q3 results slightly worse than the previous quarter – UK economic performance remains weak and inadequate
  • Business confidence and investment falls
  • Recovery in exports has weakened
  • Domestic orders are weak and far below pre-recession levels
  • Firms less confident in taking on staff
  • Companies reported cashflow problems

UK Trade

UK Trade, July 2012: ONS

  • Seasonally adjusted, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was £1.5 billion in July, compared with a deficit of £4.3 billion in June.
  • The UK’s deficit in Trade in Goods narrowed to £7.1 billion in July, down from £10.1 billion in June.
  • In the three months ending July 2012 trade in goods and services was estimated to have been in deficit by £8.0 billion, compared with a deficit of £10.5 billion in the preceding three months.