UK economic growth revised upwards

Quarterly National Accounts, Q2 2014

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.9% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the second estimate of GDP published on 15 August 2014.
  • Annual GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 1.7% in 2013, compared with 2012, unrevised from the estimate published on 15 August 2014.
  • Between Q2 2013 and Q2 2014, GDP in volume terms increased by 3.2%, unrevised from the previously published estimate.
  • GDP in current prices was estimated to have increased by 1.9% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014.
  • The peak to trough fall of the economic downturn in 2008/2009 is now estimated to be 6.0%. Previously this was estimated to be 7.2%.
  • In Q2 2014, GDP was estimated to have been 2.7% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Q1 2008, having first exceeded this peak in Q3 2013.
  • The household saving ratio was estimated to be 6.7% in Q2 2014
  • Real household disposable income increased by 2.2% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014

Indian summer

The economy, that is. Nothing to do with our dismal weather

Ernst & Young ITEM Club quarterly forecast

  • Economy will return to growth over the next six months, boosted by falling inflation and a pick-up in consumer spending
  • Inflation should hit 1.7% by the end of the year
  • Zero growth in 2012 as a whole
  • 1.6% GDP in 2013 and 2.6% in 2014
  • Real disposable incomes are forecast to increase by 0.4% in 2012, before increasing by 1.5% in 2013
  • Consumer spending forecast to grow 1.5% in 2013

UK Household Disposable Income

Household Disposable Income across the UK: ONS

  • London had the highest household income per head, nearly 30 per cent higher than the UK average.
  • The lowest disposable income was in the North East, 15 per cent lower than the UK average.
  • At local levels, Inner London West had the highest disposable income, at £33,323. The lowest was in Nottingham, at £10,702.
  • In 2010 across the UK as a whole, the average disposable household income per head stood at £15,709.
  • Over the period 1997 to 2010, London was the region with the largest growth in household income per head: 68.8 per cent
  • The rate of growth in disposable income slowed across almost all regions between 2008 and 2009.

Regional Gross Disposable Household Income

Regional Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) 2010 – ONS

  • In 2010 GDHI per head was above the UK average (£15,709) in England as a whole and in three NUTS1 regions: London, the South East and East of England.
  • Between 2009 and 2010 the rate of annual growth in GDHI per head increased in all NUTS1 regions except for the North East.
  • In 2010, Wales, London and the South West had the highest annual growth in GDHI per head at 3.3 per cent.
  • Of the 37 NUTS2 sub-regions, in 2010 Inner London had the highest GDHI per head (£23,846) while West Midlands had the lowest (£12,678).
  • Of the 139 NUTS3 areas, in 2010 Inner London – West had the highest GDHI per head (£33,323) while Nottingham had the lowest (£10,702).

Euro household saving rate down – disposable income falls

Household saving rate down

  • In the third quarter of 2011, the gross saving rate of households was 10.9% in the EU27, compared with 11.7% in the second quarter of 2011
  • In the euro area, the household saving rate was 13.3% in the third quarter of 2011 compared with 13.7% in the previous quarter
  • In the euro area, household disposable income fell by 0.4% in real terms, after a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter
  • Real income fell in the euro area due to a decrease in nominal income (-0.1%) while prices rose (+0.4%)