CBI: growth forecast

CBI: growth forecast

  • CBI expects GDP growth in 2012 will be 0.6%, slightly down from its forecast in February of 0.9%.
  • CBI forecasts GDP growth to be 2.0% in 2013.
  • Quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be flat in the second quarter of 2012 (0%) with improvement in the second half of the year (0.7%, 0.5%)
  • Household spending will remain subdued, with weak wage growth and unemployment rising to a peak of 2.86 million in the first quarter of 2013
  • Modest rise in business investment, growing at around 4% in 2012 and 5% next year.
  • Exports are forecast to see a small rise this year (1.5%) and expected to increase by around 6% in 2013
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Euro business investment up

Business investment rate up

  • In the euro area, the investment rate was 21.1% in the third quarter of 2011, compared with 20.8% in the previous quarter
  • In the third quarter of 2011, the gross investment rate of non-financial corporations was 20.5% in the EU27, compared with 20.3% in the second quarter of 2011