Euro area inflation down

Euro area inflation, Jan 2014: Eurostat

  • Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.7% in January 2014, down from 0.8% in December 2013
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Euro area unemployment stable

European unemployment, Dec  2013: Eurostat

  • The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 12.0% in December 2013, stable since October.
  • It was 11.9% in December 2012.
  • The EU28 unemployment rate was 10.7% in December 2013, down from 10.8% in November.
  • It was 10.8% in December 2012.
  • 26.200 million men and women in the EU28, of whom 19.010 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in December 2013.
  • Compared with November 2013, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 162 000 in the EU28 and by 129 000 in the euro area.
  • Compared with December 2012, unemployment decreased by 173 000 in the EU28, but increased by 130 000 in the euro area.

Growth: increase in GDP

Gross Domestic Product, Preliminary Estimate, Q4 2013: ONS

  • GDP increased by 0.7% in Q4 2013 compared with Q3 2013.
  • Output increased in three of the four main industrial groupings within the economy in Q4 2013 compared with Q3 2013. Output increased by 0.5% in agriculture, 0.7% in production and 0.8% in services. Output decreased by 0.3% in construction.
  • In Q4 2013 GDP was estimated to be 1.3% below the peak in Q1 2008. From peak to trough in 2009, the economy shrank by 7.2%.
  • GDP was 2.8% higher in Q4 2013 compared with the same quarter a year ago. GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.9% in 2013, compared with 2012.

Unemployment down

Labour Market Statistics, January 2014: ONS

  • The unemployment rate for September to November 2013 was 7.1% of the economically active population, down 0.5 percentage points from June to August 2013. There were 2.32 million unemployed people, down 167,000 from June to August 2013.
  • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for September to November 2013 was 22.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from June to August 2013. There were 8.93 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 22,000 from June to August 2013.
  • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for September to November 2013 was 72.1%, up 0.5 percentage points from June to August 2013. There were 30.15 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 280,000 from June to August 2013.
  • Total pay and regular pay both rose by 0.9% compared with September to November 2012.

Retail Sales growth

Retail Sales, December 2013: ONS

  • Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry showed strong growth in December 2013, increasing by 5.3% compared with December 2012. Comparing the 12 months of 2013 with the 12 months of 2012 the quantity bought in 2013 increased by 1.6% compared with 2012.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted data show that small stores experienced higher growth year-on-year than large stores with the amount spent in small stores increasing by 8.1% compared with 2.6% in large stores. Non-food stores provided the main contribution to the growth in the amount spent at small stores.
  • The underlying pattern in the data as suggested by the three month-on-three month movement show much weaker growth (0.4%) than suggested by the year-on-year increase (5.3%). Contractions in the quantity bought in food stores and petrol stations continued to offset growth in the quantity bought in non-food stores and non-store retailing.
  • On the month the picture is one of strong growth with the quantity bought increasing by 2.6%. All store types saw an increase in the quantity bought but perhaps most notable is the record month-on-month increase in the quantity bought at department stores of 8.7%.
  • In December 2013, the amount spent in the retail industry increased by 6.1% compared with December 2012 and by 2.6% compared with November 2013. Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in the retail industry in December 2013 was £8.8 billion compared with £8.5 billion in December 2012 and £7.5 billion in November 2013.
  • Internet sales (seasonally adjusted)  increased by 11.8% in December 2013 compared with December 2012 and by 1.8% compared with November 2013.
  • Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the proportion of sales made online decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 11.8% of all retail sales (excluding automotive fuel).

European inflation

European inflation, Dec 2013: Eurostat

  • Euro area annual inflation was 0.8% in December 2013, down from 0.9% in November
  • A year earlier the rate was 2.2%
  • Monthly inflation was 0.3% in December 2013
  • European Union annual inflation was 1.0% in December 2013, stable compared with November
  • A year earlier the rate was 2.3%
  • Monthly inflation was 0.3% in December 2013

Inflation down to 2%

Consumer Price Inflation, Dec 2013: ONS

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 2.0% in the year to December 2013, down from 2.1% in November.
  • The largest contributions to the fall in the rate came from prices for food & non-alcoholic beverages and recreational goods & services. These were partially offset by an upward contribution from motor fuels.
  • The overall price increase for gas and electricity in December 2013 was slightly larger than the rises a year earlier resulting in a small upward contribution to inflation.
  • CPIH (includes owner occupiers’ housing costs) grew by 1.9% in the year to December 2013, unchanged from November.
  • RPIJ grew by 2.0%, also unchanged from November. RPIJ is an improved variant of the Retail Prices Index which is calculated using formulae that meet international standards