Growth

Quarterly National Accounts, Q3 2013

  • UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.8% between Q2 2013 and Q3 2013, unrevised from the Second Estimate of GDP published 27 November 2013.
  • GDP in volume terms increased by 1.9% when comparing Q3 2013 with Q3 2012, revised up 0.4 percentage points from the previously estimated 1.5% increase.
  • Later data for expenditure, in particular household final consumption expenditure, has led to upward revisions for GDP since Q1 2012. As a result, between 2011 and 2012, GDP in volume terms rose by 0.3%, an upwards revision of 0.2 percentage points from the previously published 0.1% increase.
  • GDP in current prices was estimated to have increased by 1.4% between Q2 2013 and Q3 2013, revised down 0.3 percentage points from the estimate published 27 November 2013.
  • In Q3 2013 GDP in volume terms was estimated to be 2.0% below the peak in Q1 2008, as compared with 2.5% below this peak as previously estimated. From peak to trough in 2009, the economy shrank by 7.2%.

In this release

Consumer trends

Consumer Trends, Q3 2013: ONS

  • In Q3 2013, household spending (adjusted for inflation) grew by 0.8% (£1.9 billion). All areas showed positive growth with the exception of ‘Housing’ and ‘Health’.
  • Household spending when compared with the same quarter a year ago has risen in every quarter since Q1 2012 and was 2.5% higher in Q3 2013. This is the highest comparable growth since Q1 2008.
  • Household spending still remains 1.5% below the peak of spending (in volume terms) in Q4 2007.
  • The current price value of household spending, which includes inflation, shows how much UK households spent. In Q3 2013 current price spending increased by 1.7% compared with Q2 2013, continuing the trend of positive growth which has continued since Q3 2009. Current price spending is now 18.2% higher than Q4 2007.
  • In current price terms, the value of UK household spending per head was £4,117, an increase of 1.5% on the quarter.

Unemployment down

Labour Market Statistics, December 2013: ONS

  • The percentage of the economically active population aged 16 and over who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 7.4%.
  • The unemployment rate is down 0.3 percentage points from May to July 2013 and down 0.5 from a year earlier.
  • There were 2.39 million unemployed people aged 16 and over, down 99,000 from May to July 2013 and down 121,000 from a year earlier.
  • The percentage of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work (the employment rate) was 72.0%.
  • The employment rate is up 0.4 percentage points from May to July 2013 and up 0.8 from a year earlier.
  • There were 30.09 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 250,000 from May to July 2013 and up 485,000 from a year earlier.
  • The percentage of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (the economic inactivity rate) was 22.1% (the lowest since 1991).
  • The inactivity rate is down 0.1 percentage points from May to July 2013 and down 0.4 percentage points from a year earlier.
  • There were 8.92 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 45,000 from May to July 2013 and down 156,000 from a year earlier.

 

Inflation rate falls

Consumer Price Inflation, Nov 2013: ONS

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 2.1% in the year to November 2013, down from 2.2% in October.

  • The largest contributions to the fall in the rate came from food and the utilities (gas and electricity). These were partially offset by upward contributions from the transport sector and from some aspects of recreation & culture.

Social media use by businesses

ICT usage in enterprises in 2013: Eurostat

  • In 2013, almost three quarters of enterprises employing 10 persons or more in the EU28 had a website, an increase of 6 percentage points compared with 2010 (73% compared with 67%).
  • In the EU28, 30% of enterprises used at least one type of social media in 2013, although only 8% of enterprises had a formal policy for social media use.
  • 28% of enterprises in the EU28 used social networks (e.g. Facebook) in 2013, 11% multi-media content sharing websites (e.g. YouTube), 10% blogs or micro blogs (e.g. Twitter) and 6% wiki-based knowledge-sharing tools.

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European employment

European employment: Eurostat

  • The number of persons employed remained stable in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2013 compared with the previous quarter.
  • In the second quarter of 2013, employment was also stable in both zones.
  • Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2013 (after -1.1% and -0.6% respectively in the second quarter of 2013).
  • In the third quarter of 2013, 223.2 million men and women were employed in the EU28, of  which 145.0 million were in the euro area.

Business confidence up

Business Trends: BDO

  • UK business confidence has increased for the tenth consecutive month
  • The Optimism Index, which predicts business performance two quarters ahead, increased from 101.7 in October to a 43-month high of 103.1 in November, taking it comfortably above the 100.0 mark that indicates the UK economy’s long-run average growth rate.
  • The Output Index, which predicts short-run turnover expectations, went up from 100.7 to 101.8 in November
  • The Inflation Index was down from 100.5 in October to 99.7 this month