European growth

European GDP: Eurostat

  • GDP rose by 0.1% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.2% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2013, compared with the previous quarter.
  • In the second quarter of 2013, GDP grew by 0.3% in both zones.
  • Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.4% in the euro area and rose by 0.1% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2013, after -0.6% and -0.2% respectively in the previous quarter.
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Retail sales

Retail sales, Oct 2013: ONS

  • Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry continue to show growth.  In October 2013, the quantity bought increased by 1.8% compared with October 2012.  On the month the quantity bought decreased by 0.7%. Despite this fall, the underlying pattern in the data as suggested by the three month on three month movement is flat, following a sustained seven month period of growth.
  • Of the four main retail sectors non-food stores and non-store retailing provided the upwards contributions to the year-on-year growth increasing by 2.7% and 16.3% respectively.  Food stores and petrol stations saw falls in the quantity bought of 0.3% and 2.4% respectively.
  • The amount spent in the retail industry in October 2013 increased by 2.5% compared with October 2012 but fell by 0.7% compared with September 2013.  Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in October 2013 was £6.9 billion.
  • In October 2013, non-seasonally adjusted data show that the proportion of online sales increased by 1.1% compared with October 2012 and accounted for 10.5% of all retail sales (excluding automotive fuel).  Feedback from retailers suggests online specific promotions were the contributing factor to this increase.
  • The annual increase in the prices of goods sold in the retail industry slowed from an increase of 0.9% in September to 0.7% in October.  Consistent with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the automotive fuel sector provided the largest contribution to this change with the prices of goods sold in this sector falling by 3.5%, the largest fall in the price of goods sold in this sector since September 2009.  Excluding automotive fuel the prices of goods sold increased by 1.3% in October 2013.

Unemployment rate falls

Labour Market Statistics, November 2013: ONS

  •  The unemployment rate for July to September 2013 was 7.6% of the economically active population (the lowest rate in more than three years), down 0.2 percentage points from April to June 2013.  There were 2.47 million unemployed people, down 48,000 from April to June 2013.
  • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for July to September 2013 was 71.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from April to June 2013. There were 29.95 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 177,000 from April to June 2013.
  • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for July to September 2013 was 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from April to June 2013. There were 8.92 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 69,000 from April to June 2013.

Inflation, October 2013

Consumer Prices Index, Oct 2013: ONS

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 2.2% in the year to October 2013, down from 2.7% in September.
  • The largest contributions to the fall in the rate came from the transport (notably motor fuels) and education (tuition fees) sectors.
  • The other main consumer price indices moved in a similar fashion. CPIH grew by 2.0% in the year to October 2013, down from 2.5%. RPIJ grew by 1.9%, down from 2.5%.

UK business confidence improving

Business Trends: BDO

  • Business conditions continued to improve in September, as the Output Index increased to 99.5, up from 98.3 the previous month. The last time the index was higher was in July 2010.
  • The Optimism Index reached 100.7 in September, up from 98.0 in August. This level of confidence has not been seen mid-2010
  • Overall inflation expectations for business input prices continued to come down
  • Hiring expectations improved modestly

Shop prices annual deflation

Shop prices annual deflation: BRC

  • Overall shop prices reported annual deflation for the sixth consecutive month in October, deepening to 0.5% from the 0.2% decline reported in September
  • Food inflation slowed to 2.7% in October from 2.9% in September.
  • Non-food reported annual deflation of 2.4% in October from 2.0% in September

European retail trade down

Retail trade volume: Eurostat

  • In September 2013 compared with August 2013, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade fell by 0.6% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.3% in the EU28.
  • In August retail trade increased by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
  • In September 2013 compared with September 20124, the retail sales index rose by 0.3% in the euro area and by  0.8% in the EU28