European GDP up

European GDP, Q2 2013: Eurostat

  • GDP rose by 0.3% in both the euro area (EA17) and the EU27 during the second quarter of 2013, compared with  the previous quarter
  • In the first quarter of 2013, growth rates were -0.3% and -0.1% respectively.
  • Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27 in the second quarter of 2013, after -1.1% and -0.7% respectively in the previous quarter.

Unemployment falls slightly

Labour Market Statistics, August 2013: ONS

For April to June 2013:

  • The unemployment rate for April to June 2013 was 7.8% of the economically active population, unchanged from January to March 2013.
  • There were 2.51 million unemployed people, down 4,000 from January to March 2013.
  • The inactivity rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for April to June 2013 was 22.3%, virtually unchanged from January to March 2013.
  • There were 8.99 million economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64, down 10,000 from January to March 2013.
  • The employment rate for those aged from 16 to 64 for April to June 2013 was 71.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from January to March 2013.
  • There were 29.78 million people in employment aged 16 and over, up 69,000 from January to March 2013.

CPI – Consumer Price Inflation

Consumer Price Inflation, July 2013: ONS

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) grew by 2.8% in the year to July 2013, down from 2.9% in June.
  • The largest contributions to the fall in the rate came from air fares, plus price movements in the recreation & culture, and clothing & footwear sectors. A rise in petrol and diesel prices partially offset the fall.
  • The other main inflation measures moved in a similar fashion to the CPI. CPIH grew by 2.5% down from 2.7%, RPIJ grew by 2.6% down from 2.7%, and RPI (not a National Statistic) grew by 3.1% down from 3.3%.

Business trends positive

Business Trends: BDO

  • The Output Index climbed to a 26-month high of 96.8 in July up from 94.9 in June – a fifth consecutive monthly increase
  • Output in the services sector, which makes up roughly three quarters of the UK economy, rose from 94.7 in June to 96.5 in July
  • The manufacturing sector rose from 95.7 in June to 98.3 in July
  • The Optimism Index, which predicts business performance in two quarters time, moved up from 94.3 in June to 95.6 in July, posting its sixth consecutive monthly increase and standing at its highest level since April 2012
  • The Employment Index has continued to move upwards, increasing to 97.0 from 96.7 in June
  • The Inflation Index (overall inflation expectations) decreased to 102.2 in July, down from 103.4 in June

Births and deaths (of enterprises)

Births and Deaths of Enterprises in Local Enterprise Partnerships, 2004–11: ONS

  • The most recent recession had a negative effect on enterprise birth rates (decrease) and enterprise death rates  (increase).
  • Enterprise birth rates were negatively affected by the recession in 2008, sooner than enterprise death rates which began to show the negative effects in 2009.
  • The enterprise death rate exceeded the enterprise birth rate in England in 2009 and 2010, a negative net rate .
  • In all other years between 2004 and 2011, the enterprise birth rate exceeded the enterprise death rate, a positive net rate.
  • Amongst all LEPs, the London LEP had consistently high enterprise birth rates from 2004 to 2011, which coincided with investment in the Olympic Games. London also had the highest enterprise death rate between 2004 and 2007.