Retail sales expected to rise

Retail sales flat, but expected to pick up – CBI

  • Flat retail sales volumes in the year to June disappointed retailers’ hopes of modest growth.
  • Growth better than the year-on-year fall in sales seen last month, which was the first decline since April 2012.
  • Orders were broadly flat on a year ago, although they surpassed expectations of a third consecutive fall.
  • Sales volumes were a fair way below average for the time of year in June, despite expectations they would be broadly in line with seasonal norms.
  • Stock adequacy picked up on last month, in line with its long-run average.
  • The outlook is a little brighter for next month, when retailers expect sales volumes to increase.

Value of education rises in crisis

Value of education rises in crisis: OECD

  •  The jobs gap between well-educated young people and those who left school early has continued to widen during the crisis. A good education is the best insurance against a lack of work experience
  • Unemployment rates are nearly three times higher among people without an upper secondary education (13% on average across OECD countries) than among those who have a tertiary education (5%).
  • Between 2008 and 2011, the unemployment rate for the poorly-educated rose by around 4 percentage points, while it increased by only 1.5 percentage points for the highly educated.
  • The crisis has also widened the earnings gap: the average difference in earnings from employment between the low educated and the highly educated has risen from 75% across OECD countries in 2008 to 90% in 2011. On average, the relative earnings of tertiary-educated adults are over 1.5 times that of adults with upper secondary education. People with upper secondary education earn 25% more than their peers who left school early.
  • The crisis has halted the long-term trend of rising investment in education. Public spending on educational institutions between 2009 and 2010 as a percentage of GDP fell by 1% on average across the OECD area.

World of Work report

World of Work report: ILO

  • In the aftermath of the global financial crisis which erupted in 2008, some advanced economies have managed to recover some of the jobs lost
  • Europe, by contrast, is still confronted with significant challenges and in many respects its labour market and social outlook continues to deteriorate
  • On the present course, global unemployment is expected to approach 208 million in 2015, up from 200 million today
  • Long-standing labour market imbalances – such as high levels of labour market informality in developing countries and long-term unemployment in advanced economies – will remain acute

Mixed picture for footfall

I’ve been away and it might take a while for me to catch up – but here we go

Footfall Monitor, May 2013: BRC

  • Footfall in May was 0.7% lower than a year ago, down from the 1.0% rise in April.
  • Footfall in out-of-town locations continued its good performance from April, rising 1.2% in May compared with a year ago, its best performance since November 2012.
  • The high street (-1.0%) and shopping centre (-1.7%) locations both reported footfall below the UK average.
  • The hardest hit parts of the UK were Northern Ireland (-3.1%), the West Midlands (-2.9%) and East Midlands (-2.6%).

European retail trade down

European retail trade down, April 2013: Eurostat

  • In April 2013, compared with March 2013, the volume of retail trade fell by 0.5% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.7% in the EU27.
  • In March retail trade decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
  • In April 2013 , compared with April 2012, the retail sales index dropped by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU27.

European GDP down

European GDP down, Q1 2013: Eurostat

  • GDP fell by 0.2% in the euro area (EA17) and by 0.1% in the EU27 during the first quarter of 2013, compared with the previous quarter.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2012, growth rates were -0.6% and -0.5% respectively.
  • Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP fell by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU27 in the first quarter of 2013, after -1.0% and -0.7% respectively in the previous quarter.