Employee Outlook

Employee Outlook: CIPD

  • The Engagement Index shows that the proportion of employees engaged has reduced this quarter. Engagement is highest in small organisations (60% in micro businesses for instance) and decreases as the size of the organisation increases (31% in large organisations).
  • Job satisfaction has also seen a slight decrease this quarter (+44; +47 for the previous two quarters). Respondents from the private sector continue to be most satisfied with their jobs (+48), with voluntary sector respondents in the middle (+41) and the public sector showing the lowest levels of job satisfaction and the largest decrease since last quarter (+33 down from +47).
  • Respondents from the voluntary sector (62%) are now most likely to feel fully or fairly well informed about what is happening within their organisations, with respondents from the private (50%) and public (48%) sectors lagging behind.
  • Public sector employees are significantly more likely to report they are under excessive pressure than employees in the other two main sectors, with 46% saying they are under excessive pressure either every day (17%) or once or twice a week (29%).
  • Public sector respondents are most likely to report a pay freeze, with 71% saying this is the case. The proportion of private sector employees reporting a pay freeze has remained unchanged at 34%, while 41% of voluntary sector respondents report a pay freeze

Expenditure Index

Expenditure Index, January 2013: Visa

  • Month-on-month rise of 1.0% registered in January (December: -1.0%).
  • Year-on-year spending was -0.9% lower (December: -1.8%).
  • Fall in underlying spending recorded in January, with rate of decline little changed: December 3m/3m rate at -1.3% (December: -1.0%).
  • Online spending rose markedly in January, but high street suffers in the face of heavy snow.

Consumer Price Indices

Consumer Price Indices, Jan 2013: ONS

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) annual inflation grew by 2.7% in January 2013, unchanged for the fourth month in a row. This is the longest period for which the CPI growth has remained unchanged.
  • The largest upward pressures came from alcohol and air fares.
  • Miscellaneous goods & services and clothing provided the largest downward pressures.
  • The CPI stands at 124.4 in January 2013 based on 2005 = 100.
  • The Retail Prices Index (RPI) annual inflation grew by 3.3% in January 2013, up from 3.1% in December 2012.
  • The RPI stands at 245.8 in January 2013 based on January 1987 = 100

Business confidence index

Business confidence index / trade confidence index: BCC

Exports rise 1.4% in Q4 2012 – up 5.2% on Q4 2011

  • Nearly half of exporters (45%) said their export sales increased, compared to 13% of respondents, who said that they decreased;
  • In the service sector, export sales increased for 46% of firms, up from 42% in Q3; in manufacturing, export sales increased for 45% of businesses, up from 34% in Q3;
  • 59% of exporters feel that their turnover will increase in 2013. 50% believe that their profitability will improve in 2013;
  • More than a quarter of firms (27%) said they expected to increase staff this year, down from 31% in Q3

Business Confidence hits 21-year low

Business Trends: BDO

  • BDO Optimism Index fell to its lowest reading since the report began 21 years ago
  • It fell to 88.9 in January from a reading of 90.3 in December – the eighth consecutive month that the Index has remained below 95.0, the mark which indicates growth.
  • The Output Index, which predicts short-run turnover expectations, also supports this, falling from 93.1 to 92.3 last month
  • The Employment Index, which measures businesses’ hiring intentions over the next two quarters, rose to 95.1 in January from 93.0 in December
  • The Optimism for manufacturing firms rose to 95.2 in January from 91.9 in December
  • The Output Index score, indicating manufacturers’ order book strength, increased to 92.3 in January from 90.6 in December