Inflation expectations fall, output expectations increase, optimism falls

Business Trends: BDO

  • Businesses inflation expectations have fallen to the lowest point since April 2010
  • The Inflation Index dropped from 100.2 in October to 99.2 in November, below the 100.0 mark which indicates average trend growth.
  • The Output Index increased for the third successive month, rising to 93.4 in November, the strongest reading since July 2012
  • Optimism Index, which predicts business performance two quarters ahead, dropped to a lowly 91.4

 

November increase in consumer confidence

UK Consumer Confidence Barometer: GFK

  • UK Consumer Confidence Measures – November 2012
    • The overall index score has increased eight points this month to -22. All five measures saw increases this month. The annual moving average decreases one point to -29.
  • Personal Financial Situation
    • The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has increased three points this month to -21; this is two points higher than November 2011. The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has increased six points to -7; this is three points higher than this time last year.
  • General Economic Situation
    • The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has increased nine points to -44; this is seventeen points higher than November 2011. An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has increased fourteen points this month to -15; this is eighteen points higher than November 2011.
  • Climate for Major Purchases
    • The major purchases measure has increased seven points this month to -26; which is one point higher than this time last year.
  • Savings Index 
    • The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has increased one point to -16, which is three points lower than November ’11.

European GDP up and down

European GDP: Eurostat

  • GDP fell by 0.1% in the euro area (EA17) and increased by 0.1% in the EU27 during the third quarter of 2012, compared with the previous quarter.
  • In the second quarter of 2012, growth rates were -0.2% in both zones.
  • Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU27 in the third quarter of 2012, after -0.5% and -0.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

Retailers report improved year on year sales

Strong retail sales growth continues: CBI

  • Year-on-year growth in retail sales volumes continued for a third consecutive month
  • Volumes growth on the year is expected to decelerate slightly in December
  • Retailers expect the business situation to improve over the next three months to the greatest extent in two years
  • Strong rebound in year-on-year employment growth