Private sector employment expected to rise

Autumn 2012 employment trends survey: CBI

• Over a third of employers (35%) expect their workforce to be larger in 12 months’ time than it is today, while just15% expect it to be smaller – a positive balance of +20%. This compares to a positive balance of +28% at this point last year
• Among small and medium-sized businesses expectations of workforce expansion are particularly widespread, with a positive balance of +36% in the smallest firms and +27% of mid-sized businesses expecting to grow their workforce
• More firms plan to expand their level of recruitment of permanent staff in the next six months than anticipate a reduction (25% compared with 16%, giving a positive balance of +9%)

Retail employment rising

Retail Employment Monitor, Q3: BRC

• Retail employment rose by 2.9% in the third quarter of 2012 compared with a year earlier, the fastest growth in two years – equivalent to 20,533 additional full-time jobs in our sampled retailers
• The increase in jobs was driven by part-time workers, particularly in the grocery sector
• The number of outlets and full-time jobs fell in non-food retailing

GDP – emerging from recession

Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Q3 2012: ONS

• GDP was estimated to have increased by 1.0 per cent in Q3 2012 compared with Q2 2012
• Output of the production industries was estimated to have increased by 1.1 per cent in Q3 2012 compared with Q2 2012, following a decrease of 0.7 per cent between Q1 2012 and Q2 2012
• Construction sector output was estimated to have decreased by 2.5 per cent in Q3 2012 compared with Q2 2012, following a decrease of 3.0 per cent between Q1 2012 and Q2 2012
• Output of the service industries was estimated to have increased by 1.3 per cent in Q3 2012 compared with Q2 2012, following a decrease of 0.1 per cent between Q1 2012 and Q2 2012
• GDP in volume terms was estimated to have been flat in Q3 2012, when compared with Q3 2011

European current account

EU27 current account: Eurostat

• The EU27 external current account recorded a deficit of 6.8 billion euro in the second quarter of 2012 compared with a deficit of 28.3 bn in the second quarter of 2011
• 37.8 bn euro surplus for trade in services

Retail sales increase

Retail Sales, September 2012: ONS

• Compared with September 2011, in September 2012 the amount of goods bought in the retail sector (all retailing seasonally adjusted sales volumes) was estimated to have increased by 2.5 per cent. Over the same period, the amount spent in the retail sector (all retailing seasonally adjusted sales values) was estimated to have increased by 3.2 per cent.
• Looking at the monthly picture, it is estimated that the amount of goods bought in the retail sector (September 2012 compared with August 2012) increased by 0.6 per cent following a 0.1 per cent fall between July 2012 and August 2012. The amount spent was estimated to have increased by 1.1 per cent between August 2012 and September 2012 following a 0.2 per cent increase between July 2012 and August 2012.
• Annual store price inflation was estimated to have increased to 0.7 per cent. Looking at the monthly picture the prices of goods sold in the retail sector were estimated to have increased by 1.3 per cent. Consistent with the Consumer Prices Index the main source of upward pressure came from a rise in prices at stores selling textiles, clothing and footwear.
• The average weekly spend across all retailing in September 2012 was estimated at £6.6 billion; compared with £6.5 billion in August 2012 and £6.4 billion in September 2011.
• The proportion of Internet sales was estimated to have increased by 0.5 per cent between August and September 2012. Compared with a year ago, the proportion of Internet sales in September 2012 was estimated to have increased by 0.5 per cent. In September 2012 the estimated average weekly spend on line was £507.8 million.