BCC downgrades 2012 growth forecast

British Chambers of Commerce Q3 Economic Forecast

  • Downgrade of 2012 growth forecast from +0.1% to -0.4
  • Although UK quarterly growth will be positive in Q3 and Q4 of this year, GDP growth will be in negative territory for 2012 as a whole
  • Growth forecast for 2013 is revised down from 1.9% to 1.2%, followed by an improvement to 2.2% in 2014.
  • Household consumption will remain subdued; after falling 1.1% in 2011 and 0.2% in 2012, it will return to positive growth in 2013 and 2014.
  • We predict that total UK unemployment will increase from 2.564 million (8.0% of the workforce) in Q2 2012, to 2.750 million (8.5% of the workforce) in Q4 2013, a net increase of 186,000 in the jobless total.
  • Youth unemployment will total some 1.048 million in Q4 2013. Unemployment in the 16-17 age group is forecast to total around 218,000 (a jobless rate of 39%) in Q4 2013. Unemployment in the 18-24 age group is forecast to total around 830,000 (a jobless rate of 21%) in Q4 2013.
  • In average terms, we are now predicting annual CPI inflation at 2.7% in 2012, 2.1% in 2013, and 2.2% in 2014.
  • For RPI inflation we are now predicting 3.1% in 2012, 2.3% in 2013, and 2.5% in 2014.

 

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