Retail Sales volume dips

Retail Sales, June 2015: ONS

  • Compared with May 2015, the quantity bought in the retail industry was estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. Falls were reported by predominantly food stores, other stores, household goods stores and petrol stations.
  • Year-on-year estimates of the quantity bought in the retail industry continued to show growth for the 27th consecutive month in June 2015, increasing by 4.0% compared with June 2014. This was the longest period of sustained year-on-year growth since May 2008, when there were 31 periods of growth.
  • The underlying pattern in the data, as suggested by the 3 month on 3 month movement in the quantity bought, continued to show growth for the 28th consecutive month, increasing by 0.7%. This is the longest period of sustained growth since consistent records began in June 1996.
  • verage store prices (including petrol stations) fell by 2.9% in June 2015 compared with June 2014. This is the 12th consecutive month of year-on-year price falls with all store types reporting decreases. The largest contribution came once again from petrol stations which fell by 10.0%, the 22nd consecutive month of year-on-year falling prices in this store type.
  • In June 2015, the amount spent in the retail industry increased by 0.9% compared with June 2014, but decreased by 0.1% compared with May 2015. Non-seasonally adjusted data show that the average weekly spend in the retail industry was £7.1 billion, unchanged from the previous month and the June 2014 figure.
  • The value of sales made online in June 2015 increased by 1.4% compared with May 2015 and accounted for 12.4% of all retail sales. Online sales increased by 11.4% compared with June 2014.

Growth

Gross Domestic Product: Preliminary Estimate, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015

  • GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015.
  • Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015. Services increased by 0.7% and production increased by 1.0%. Construction growth was flat. In contrast agriculture decreased by 0.7%.
  • GDP was 2.6% higher in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015 compared with the same quarter a year ago.
  • In Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2015, GDP was estimated to have been 5.2% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.0%.

Unemployment rises, employment falls

UK Labour Market, July 2015: ONS

Main points for March to May 2015

  • There were 1.85 million unemployed people. This was 15,000 more than for the 3 months to February 2015, the first quarterly increase since January to March 2013. Comparing March to May 2015 with a year earlier, there were 273,000 fewer unemployed people.
  • The proportion of the economically active population who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 5.6%, little changed compared with the 3 months to February 2015 but lower than for a year earlier (6.5%). Economically active people are those in work plus those seeking and available to work.
  • There were 9.02 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were out of work and not seeking or available to work (known as economically inactive), 30,000 more than for the 3 months to February 2015 and 104,000 more than for a year earlier.
  • The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (the inactivity rate) was 22.2%, little changed compared with the 3 months to February 2015 but higher than for a year earlier (22.0%)
  • There were 30.98 million people in work. This was 67,000 fewer than for the 3 months to February 2015, the first quarterly fall since February to April 2013. Comparing March to May 2015 with a year earlier, there were 265,000 more people in work (272,000 more people working full-time and 7,000 fewer people working part-time).
  • The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) was 73.3%, little changed compared with the 3 months to February 2015 but higher than for a year earlier (72.9%).

Inflation rate at 0%

Consumer price indices: June 2015

  • The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was unchanged in the year to June 2015, that is, a 12-month rate of 0.0%, down from 0.1% in the year to May.
  • Falls in clothing and food prices were the main contributors to the change in the rate along with smaller rises in air fares than a year ago.
  • There were no large upward effects to offset the change.

Economic well-being

Economic Well-being, Quarter 1 Jan to Mar 2015

  • In Q1 2015, gross domestic product (GDP) per head increased 0.2% compared to Q4 2014 but remains 0.6% below pre-economic downturn levels. This was a slightly slower growth rate than the 0.4% quarterly increase seen in GDP.
  • Net national disposable income (NNDI) per head, which represents the income available to UK residents, increased 1.6% compared to Q4 2014, but remains 3.8% below pre-economic downturn levels.
  • In Q1 2015, real household disposable income (RHDI) per head (excluding non-profit institutions serving households) was unchanged (0.0%) compared to Q4 2014 and increased 3.7% compared to the same quarter a year ago (Q1 2014). Overall, it remains broadly in line with the level of household income seen since 2012.
  • In the financial year ending 2014, median income (the income of the middle household if all households are ranked from the lowest income to the highest) was £24,500 – 3.4% higher than in 2012/13. This is a reversal of the downward trend seen since the finanical year ending 2008.
  • In Q1 2015, household spending per head grew 0.8% compared to the previous quarter – continuing the general upward trend that started in Q3 2011.

Faster growth

Quarterly National Accounts, Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015

  • UK GDP in volume terms was estimated to have increased by 0.4% between Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2014 and Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate of GDP published 28 May 2015.
  • GDP was estimated to have increased by 3.0% in 2014, compared with 2013, revised up 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
  • Between Quarter 1 2014 and Quarter 1 2015, GDP in volume terms increased by 2.9%, revised up 0.5 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
  • GDP in current prices was estimated to have increased by 0.7% between Quarter 4 2014 and Quarter 1 2015, revised down 0.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
  • GDP per head was estimated to have increased by 0.2% between Quarter 4 2014 and Quarter 1 2015, revised up 0.1 percentage points from the previously published estimate. Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased by 2.3%.

Unemployment continues to fall

Labour Market Statistics, June 2015: ONS

Comparing the estimates for February to April 2015 with those for the 3 months to January 2015, employment continued to rise and unemployment continued to fall.

  • There were 1.81 million unemployed people. This was 43,000 fewer than for the 3 months to January 2015 and 349,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
  • The proportion of the economically active population who were unemployed (the unemployment rate) was 5.5%, lower than for the 3 months to January 2015 (5.7%) and for a year earlier (6.6%). Economically active people are those in work plus those seeking and available to work.
  • There were 9.02 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were out of work and not seeking or available to work (known as economically inactive), 10,000 fewer than for the 3 months to January 2015 but 60,000 more than for a year earlier.
  • The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (the inactivity rate) was 22.2%, little changed compared with the 3 months to January 2015 and with a year earlier
  • There were 31.05 million people in work, 114,000 more than for the 3 months to January 2015 and 424,000 more than for a year earlier.
  • There were 22.74 million people working full-time, 362,000 more than for a year earlier. There were 8.31 million people working part-time, 63,000 more than for a year earlier.
  • The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) was 73.4%, up slightly from the 3 months to January 2015 (73.3%) and higher than for a year earlier (72.7%).